The Evidence
Can AI Predict the Market? What the Research Says
Two published studies, read in full: measured performance was middling, and every model in a fifteen-model benchmark degraded on data it had not seen.
4 min read
Category
What research and testing really show about predicting markets with models, and why results that look convincing in a backtest so often do not survive contact with a live market.
Two published studies, read in full: measured performance was middling, and every model in a fifteen-model benchmark degraded on data it had not seen.
4 min read
Measured model performance is middling and degrades on unseen data, and a regulator names overreliance as a risk. None of that proves humans are better.
4 min read
A backtest is a search, not a measurement. What overfitting does to a strategy, and what MetaTrader 5 says its own tester leaves out.
5 min read